Best NBA Player Props Today - December 19
We have a small slate of games on Tuesday with only four on the schedule, but that doesn't mean we can't find some edges in the NBA odds for our player props. Tuesday's slate is highlighted by an NBA Finals rematch between the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics, but there is another sneaky good storyline as well, or at least, maybe.
Ja Morant is back! Not only is Morant back, but he'll be facing the player who beat him out for the No. 1 overall pick in 2019, Zion Williamson. Well, at least, we thought this was the matchup we would be seeing on Tuesday.
Is Williamson ducking the matchup with an illness? That's the buzz on X, as Williamson was randomly announced with a questionable tag for Tuesday's game.
The Williamson injury news is of significance to us because it's having an impact on one of the NBA player props I bet, but I'm not sure its impact is justified for this specific matchup. Let's take a closer look at my free NBA picks for Tuesday, December 19.
Best NBA player props today
- Lillard Under 7.5 assists (+110 at DraftKings)
- Ingram Under 5.5 assists (-104 at FanDuel)
- Durant Over 5.5 assists (+116 at FanDuel)
Picks made on December 19 at 12:40 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for December 19
Prop bet #1: Dimeless Dame
The Milwaukee Bucks will be taking on the San Antonio Spurs without Victor Wembanyama, as the rookie sensation has already been ruled out for Tuesday's game. The Bucks are trading as a 16.5-point favorite over the Spurs, and this no doubt plays a factor in how we go about attacking Damian Lillard's odds.
The possibility of him not playing in the fourth quarter because it's a blowout is very real. When a spread is in the 8-10 point range, it's a possibility, but when you're talking about a 16.5-point spread... the Bucks might not even be covering and still not feel rushed to bring Lillard back into the Game.
Remember, players want to meet the 65-game threshold for awards as well, so the opportunity to steal some rest in a game where he already played 20 minutes is of value to someone like Lillard.
It's also not as if you're getting a discount here on the juice for the Over 7.5 with the potential for decreased minutes. Lillard typically trades in the 6.5 and 7.5 window, so when I saw a 7.5 with increased juice on the Over in this spot, I had to hit the button.
The other thing for Lillard when it comes to facing the Spurs is his teammates don't even need him to create offense or create shots for them. Whenever a Milwaukee player catches the ball, they'll be able to create a shot without the help of Lillard.
The Spurs will also be without their main rim protector in Wembanyama, so when Lillard drives the lane, why would he pass? He's someone who can finish around the rim.
Lillard is projected to have 7.5 assists on Tuesday against San Antonio, which means we can price the Under 7.5 assists at -113. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 11%.
Damian Lillard prop: Under 7.5 assists (+114 at DraftKings)
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Prop bet #2: Brandon the ball hog
Alright, let's get into the weeds here with this bet because It's a fun one. So I bet the Under 5.5 assists on Brandon Ingram's odds early this morning at -104, and it quickly steamed to -140. It held at this price for several hours, but we've recently seen a shift in the odds to bring it back to the -104 price point.
What caused the adjustment in the odds is Zion Williamson has been given a questionable tag on the injury report with an illness. It's assumed that if Williamson is out, the usage of Ingram will go up, and the potential for assists will increase.
It's an interesting move because, in most matchups, I would agree Williamson being out would hurt an Under bet on Ingram's assists prop. But against the Grizzlies, I'm not so convinced. Memphis likes to funnel people toward the nail and the mid-range game. This plays right into the shot that Ingram is constantly hunting, so he isn't going to be looking to pass from this spot: he should be looking to score.
Also, if you go back and watch Ingram's game against the Grizzlies on October 25, he went Over this total with six assists, but several of those assists were to Williamson finishing dunks at the rim. Memphis has rim protection and a strong interior defense, so the loss of Williamson — who can still finish these plays at the rim — should be felt in Ingram's assist total.
Whether Williamson plays or not, I still like this number on Ingram. If the New Orleans Pelicans were playing the Indiana Pacers, my opinion would be much different. With Williamson in the lineup I have Ingram projected for 5.1 assists, which allows us to price the Under 5.5 assists at -150.
Brandon Ingram prop: Under 5.5 assists (-104 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #3: Slim passer
We're seeing a ton of steam in the market for the Over on Devin Booker's assists prop, which opened at 7.5 (-120) at DraftKings and is now trading at 7.5 (-180). However, when I look at the Phoenix Suns matchup with the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday, I much prefer attacking the Over on Kevin Durant's odds.
The Trail Blazers attempted to guard Durant with Jerami Grant in their previous matchup, and I say 'attempted' because Durant was absolutely cooking him. Portland ended up switching up its coverage and having the guards show on Durant as well whenever he drove.
What did this do? Well, it opened up passing lanes for cutters and shooters, and Durant had 16 potential assists against the Trail Blazers to go along with his nine actual dimes.
Not only was Durant causing problems for the Blazers in the iso Game, but he was also picking on Deandre Ayton — who was trying to play deep drop coverage in the pick-and-roll. Ayton had to start coming up because Durant can punish you with the mid-range jumper, and it opened up Nurkic on the roll for shots at the rim off of a Durant pass.
Durant is projected to have 5.8 assists on Tuesday against the Trail Blazers, which allows us to price the Over 5.5 assists at -105. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 10%.
Kevin Durant prop: Over 5.5 assists (+116 at FanDuel)
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