Best NBA Player Props Today - February 3
After a somewhat understated Friday night schedule, Saturday, February 3 features a slew of intriguing matchups to pick from for today’s NBA player props picks.
I’m backing a series of Unders, all on guards, as I zero in on the NBA odds and matchup contexts for DeMar DeRozan, Tyrese Maxey, and Spencer Dinwiddie.
Let’s get right into my free NBA picks for this evening’s player props markets.
Best NBA player props today
- DeMar DeRozan Under 25.5 points (-115 at bet365)
- Tyrese Maxey Under 6.5 assists (-120 at SIA)
- Spencer Dinwiddie Under 2.5 rebounds (-105 at bet365)
Picks made on February 3 at 1:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for February 3
Prop bet #1: Doubting DeMar
I promise I’m not picking on DeMar DeRozan — a player I have a great deal of affection for — but I am taking yet another Under on his points prop Saturday. Because these DeMar DeRozan odds are just that far off the mark.
DeMar has only scored more than 25 points twice in his last 13 games, he’s at a low watermark for efficiency for his post-Toronto career, and yet he’s being listed at 25.5 when the Bulls take on the Sacramento Kings.
Gifting DeMar a line four points above his season average because he’s playing a fatigued Kings team isn’t solid reasoning to me. The types of players that make the Kings pay are the ones who attack the rim and use great burst to beat their squishy interior defense.
That’s not DeMar’s game. He wants to back you down, pump fake, and if he can’t draw a foul, he’ll take a 15-footer. His game is predicated on craft, not speed or overwhelming strength.
Sacramento has size at the forward spots to credibly guard DeMar on the block. When these teams played last year in March, Harrison Barnes was the main cover against DeMar. That was while Zach LaVine was healthy, however and before Keegan Murray’s emergence as the Kings' de facto defensive stopper.
DeMar doesn’t have the speed to make Sacramento pay for guarding him with a forward like Murray anymore, so I expect he’ll see at least some time against him.
Those are going to be tough minutes for DeMar. Keegan is long, strong, and disciplined. He’s been thrown against the likes of Steph Curry one night and Kawhi Leonard the next without so much as blinking. He can trust his size as a 6-foot-8 forward, and despite the difficulty of opponents he guards, is not a high foul player.
DeMar DeRozan prop: Under 25.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Tepid Tyrese
For my second bet on Saturday’s slate, I’m going with Tyrese Maxey Under 6.5 assists.
Maxey is coming off a career-high 51 points against the Utah Jazz, the first game in which he had to play the role of solo star with Joel Embiid sidelined for the foreseeable future. Maxey was his usual dynamic self as a driver and a cutter and he also had his outside going, it makes him nearly unstoppable as a scorer.
I say scorer and not offensive player because despite dominating the ball and totaling 51 points, he had just one assist in 41 minutes.
Counter-intuitively, I think Maxey playing the role of primary scorer for the Philadelphia 76ers is likely to see him average fewer assists, not more. As more of the scoring burden is on his shoulders, opposing defenses key in on him one pass away, and he loses his top pick and pop partner in Embiid.
Maxey to Embiid is the third-most productive assist partnership in the NBA this season, accounting for just about three assists out of Maxey’s 6.4 per game. On average, Tyrese’s assists drop by 1.2 per game in games he plays without Embiid. That’s why I think these Tyrese Maxey odds provide great value to bet the Under.
The Brooklyn Nets also have good to great on-ball defenders to throw at Maxey, including Mikal Bridges. Bridges has the kind of length to make the passing windows for a small guard like Maxey tough, so I find it easy to imagine him defaulting to what he does best and working as a score-first player.
Tyrese Maxey prop: Under 6.5 assists (-120 at SIA)
Prop bet #3: What’s eating Dinwiddie?
Spencer Dinwiddie is in a rut. His production in all aspects of the game for the Nets is in sharp decline, leading to rampant speculation about his role and future with the team.
He simply doesn’t look engaged during long stretches of play, and it’s led to uncomfortable conversations with Nets officials as well as criticism by NBA analysts.
Whatever the reason, Dinwiddie isn’t making the effort plays that make a role player of his caliber worth playing big minutes. Rebounding is often where effort (or a lack thereof) first manifests in the box score, and it’s manifesting in earnest in Dinwiddie’s recent performances.
Dinwiddie has only had three rebounds in three of his last 13 Games. He hasn’t had more than two in six straight. The Spencer Dinwiddie odds for this Game are probably so favorable because they’re accounting for Embiid being out of action on the glass.
But even with Embiid out, this play has value. Paul Reed is a sound rebounder for his position, so is Tobias Harris. Patrick Beverley is one of the best small guard rebounders in the NBA. He’s a player who stays in the league with his outsized effort, and it’s easy to see any 50/50 ball between him and Dinwiddie ending up in Beverley’s hands.
Until I see Dinwiddie snap out of whatever funk he’s in, I’m going to keep looking for value shorting him where effort matters the most.
Spencer Dinwiddie prop: Under 2.5 rebounds (-105 at bet365)
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